Mostly though, I'm excited that fantasy baseball season is over so I can focus on (fantasy) football, as well as the baseball playoffs. Fantasy sports really enhance my spectator experience, but it's also nice to watch a game and not worry about every at-bat and how it will affect me. Here's hoping the Yankees go deep into October baseball!
Showing posts with label sports. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sports. Show all posts
Monday, September 21, 2009
You Should Listen to Me: I Placed First in a Private Make-Believe World
So all my waiver-wiring and managing risk and whatnot landed me a league title in one of the two leagues I cared about (and I came in second in the other one). Booya!
Monday, August 10, 2009
Thursday, August 6, 2009
It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over
Fantasy Baseball has been good to me this year. In the two leagues I actually pay attention to, I'm in first place, one team by 4 games, the other by 19. And it's not that I draft well; I know I'm pretty bad at that sorta thing, and this year was no different (1 of the 10 guys I drafted in the last 5 rounds of these 2 leagues is still on my roster). No, it was all thanks to free agent pickups and waiver claims.
Grey of Razzball.com says it best:
You don’t want to be Cowboy Jon praying Matt Wieters comes up in June while you sit in 8th place not even needing a catcher. Or are you holding your waiver claim because you’re afraid someone is going to drop Prince Fielder? Who are you, John Q. Law? This is your job, why? Wait, even better. If you’re in a league with a guy who wears fancy dungarees and who would drop Prince Fielder, you shouldn’t be in that league. If you need a guy for your roster, then claim him. While your leaguemates are waiting for someone they deem worthy of a pickup, you’ll be grabbing all kinds of other players that are immediately useful.That advice goes for free agents too. And better yet, free agents don't cost you anything other than the worst player on your roster.
Key players that I picked up off free agency/waivers this year:
- Ben Zobrist
- Mark Reynolds
- Jon Lester (an impatient owner dropped him)
- Andrew Bailey
- Jordan Zimmerman (traded to get Casey McGehee)
- Jake Fox (traded to get Leo Nunez)
I'm 19 games up in one league pretty much solely on the shoulders of Zobrist and Reynolds. Drafting is super important, as the basis of your team is formed in those first hours of the fantasy season. But even if your draft doesn't go according to plan (like drafting Garrett Atkins in the 4th round), you can still recover if you keep an eye on the game.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Moneyball in Fantasy Sports
The main message of Moneyball was that Billy Beane built winning teams on the cheap by finding inefficiencies in the market and exploiting them. We can use that same tactic in fantasy baseball.
Let's examine a common fantasy expert recommendation: don't draft top-rated catchers in the top 100 picks. If you've been in many drafts, you've probably seen people who wait until the 19th round to pick up a catcher. In the same draft, someone probably drafted Joe Mauer in the 5th round. When you're deciding when to draft a catcher, you want to know what people think about catchers and the above recommendation. If you somehow know that everyone is following the above recommendation, you can bet that Russell Martin will be available in the 9th round and draft accordingly. That's a market inefficiency.
Another example: a common draft tenet is to not draft top-rated closers. If you know everyone is following this rule, but you really want Jonathan Papelbon, you can wait a few rounds more than you would normally to draft him.
It can be hard to figure out the trends of the draft while it's going on, especially in timed drafts like Yahoo's (90 seconds is not a lot of time). Some signs are obivous; position runs are the most obvious ones. When everyone is taking closers, the other positions are being neglected. Notice these trends.
Others inefficiencies are harder to spot. Typically you will only know how a drafter feels about single-spot positions (i.e. SS, 2B, and C) when they draft them, and then it's too late. The positions you can learn the most about are OF (undifferentiated), SP, and RP, since teams need multiple players for those positions. If you have time to keep track of your opponents drafting habits, you can see how they value those positions and make guesses as to when they might draft the next player.
You can also look at stat categories. Maybe runs are being undervalued. Maybe drafters are rushing to grab stolen bases. Keep an eye on available stats left on the board and how fast they leave the board.
You're not drafting in a vacuum; every other drafter is making moves, and every move they make carries a lot of information. In addition to your one draft sheet (you only have one, right?), you should have one scouting sheet. Take notes on your opponents. If you've played with them before, jot down your thoughts about them before the draft. If you can spot these trends before others do, you can get a huge advantage.
(I'm hoping to handle some of this in Walrus, so keep your eyes peeled!)
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Johan Santana SP +++ Is Pretty Good
Every baseball off season I prepare a note sheet with things I read or learn about baseball players that might help me come draft season. An example note from last season: "michael bourn of + like a cheap Juan Pierre; will get steals but kill your average". Sometimes I'm right ("brad lidge rp + give him a looksee") and sometimes I'm wrong ("nick swisher of/1b + especially in OBP leagues, slg .824 in ST over .464 career"). But I like writing these things down and taking stock.
My HSL note sheet for this off season has grown to 41 players (from A.J. Burnett to Zack Greinke, alpha-sorted by first name). I'm a little concerned that the majority of my notes are on starting pitchers (17). I also only have one negative note (sorry J.J. Putz). I've added a draft column to the sheet to suggest to myself what round I should target the player in. This information will work great with Walrus's "must-draft-by" feature.
There's just so much information out there and we can't keep it all in our heads the whole time. My HSL note sheet has been step one to organize my information. Walrus is step two.
My HSL note sheet for this off season has grown to 41 players (from A.J. Burnett to Zack Greinke, alpha-sorted by first name). I'm a little concerned that the majority of my notes are on starting pitchers (17). I also only have one negative note (sorry J.J. Putz). I've added a draft column to the sheet to suggest to myself what round I should target the player in. This information will work great with Walrus's "must-draft-by" feature.
There's just so much information out there and we can't keep it all in our heads the whole time. My HSL note sheet has been step one to organize my information. Walrus is step two.
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Favre and Mangini Should Go
I place the blame for the Jets' not winning the AFC East on Mangini and Favre.
That is all.
That is all.
Monday, December 22, 2008
You Know It's Fantasy Baseball Season When...
- My Hot Stove League note sheet is already two pages long.
- I'm posting on other fantasy baseball blogs.
- I've restarted work on my mid-draft fantasy baseball analysis tool (Walrus).
- I've had a 2-hour conference call with league co-commissioners to determine rules for next year.
I Sound Like Joe Morgan: Mangini was Inconsistent
When I look at each of Eric Mangini's decisions this past game, I can understand each one of them individually. But when you put them all together, they paint a very inconsistent picture of the third-year coach. Let me go through the key decisions and point out in each case what Mangini must have been valuing.
Opening drive of game, 4th and 2 feet, 2.5 yard line of Seattle (0-0):
Mangini decides to kick the field goal instead of going for it. He takes the (all but) guaranteed 3 points instead of taking a slight risk of no points. His decision here is conservative, valuing points on the board above a higher risk play. He also disregards the field position the Seahawks would start with. That early in the game, I completely understand just wanting to get some points.
Early in 4th quarter, after Feely nails a 45-yard field goal negated by a delay-of-game penalty (10-3 Seattle):
This time Mangini decides to play for field position. He has Hodges punt and pin Seattle on their 6 yard line (way to save your job, Reggies) instead of risking giving them the ball at about midfield. Again Mangini took the conservative play, but this time he was playing for field position instead of points. (And let's not forget that Feely absolutely drilled the 45-yarder so well it would've been good from 55 yards).
Late in 4th quarter, 3rd and 2 on the Jets 21 yard line, about 2:40 left (10-3, Seattle):
Most analysts will tell you Mangini's big mistake came on 4th down, but I think he screwed up on third down. We know in hindsight that Mangini was planning to go for it on 4th down (assuming the Jets didn't lose yardage). Why not run the ball? You have 3 time outs. You have the 2-minute warning. You have plenty of time. Thomas Jones averaged around 4 yards a carry. Or you could call a draw to Leon "Hot" Washington from the shotgun. Here Mangini lost sight of the game clock, really. He had tunnel vision and forgot about the run.
Late in 4th quarter, 4th and 2 on the Jets 21 yard line, 2:21 left (10-3, Seattle):
Ok, so incomplete pass, now it's 4th down. Mangini decides to go for it. Isolated from the rest of his decisions, I like this call. If you punt it, all Seattle has to do is get one first down and the game is basically over. And how hard is it to get 2 yards anyway (see previous play)?
But this decision is on the complete opposite side of the spectrum from his other decisions. He eschews field position, despite knowing that if they don't get a 1st down, the game is really over, as Seattle will kick a field goal to make it a 2-score game. Again, tunnel vision. He was in "4-down situation" and could not consider other options (the CBS crew did a good job pointing out the reasons to punt the ball there).
Of course, they don't get the first down (Favre decides to throw deep into good double coverage when all they needed was 2 yards?). Mangini is clearly showing his inexperience and lack of skill. He's not as smart as I thought he was.
Opening drive of game, 4th and 2 feet, 2.5 yard line of Seattle (0-0):
Mangini decides to kick the field goal instead of going for it. He takes the (all but) guaranteed 3 points instead of taking a slight risk of no points. His decision here is conservative, valuing points on the board above a higher risk play. He also disregards the field position the Seahawks would start with. That early in the game, I completely understand just wanting to get some points.
Early in 4th quarter, after Feely nails a 45-yard field goal negated by a delay-of-game penalty (10-3 Seattle):
This time Mangini decides to play for field position. He has Hodges punt and pin Seattle on their 6 yard line (way to save your job, Reggies) instead of risking giving them the ball at about midfield. Again Mangini took the conservative play, but this time he was playing for field position instead of points. (And let's not forget that Feely absolutely drilled the 45-yarder so well it would've been good from 55 yards).
Late in 4th quarter, 3rd and 2 on the Jets 21 yard line, about 2:40 left (10-3, Seattle):
Most analysts will tell you Mangini's big mistake came on 4th down, but I think he screwed up on third down. We know in hindsight that Mangini was planning to go for it on 4th down (assuming the Jets didn't lose yardage). Why not run the ball? You have 3 time outs. You have the 2-minute warning. You have plenty of time. Thomas Jones averaged around 4 yards a carry. Or you could call a draw to Leon "Hot" Washington from the shotgun. Here Mangini lost sight of the game clock, really. He had tunnel vision and forgot about the run.
Late in 4th quarter, 4th and 2 on the Jets 21 yard line, 2:21 left (10-3, Seattle):
Ok, so incomplete pass, now it's 4th down. Mangini decides to go for it. Isolated from the rest of his decisions, I like this call. If you punt it, all Seattle has to do is get one first down and the game is basically over. And how hard is it to get 2 yards anyway (see previous play)?
But this decision is on the complete opposite side of the spectrum from his other decisions. He eschews field position, despite knowing that if they don't get a 1st down, the game is really over, as Seattle will kick a field goal to make it a 2-score game. Again, tunnel vision. He was in "4-down situation" and could not consider other options (the CBS crew did a good job pointing out the reasons to punt the ball there).
Of course, they don't get the first down (Favre decides to throw deep into good double coverage when all they needed was 2 yards?). Mangini is clearly showing his inexperience and lack of skill. He's not as smart as I thought he was.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Bill Belichick is a Jerk
I can't believe Belichick challenged that play... up by 29 (five scores) with 2:33 left to go, he challenged the spot of a Raiders 4th-down conversion. This guy has no sportsmanship.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Bold Prediction Wednesday! It's the Yankees Again
Prediction: Yankees fail to sign CC Sabathia. Yankees do sign Mark Texeira for $120M over 6 years.
Monday, November 17, 2008
I Thought Slavery Was Illegal
The Yankees sold a man to another team for $1 million. That's 0.7% of the money needed to sign Sabathia.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Schwehmdawgs Chronicles: The Final Chapter
So the Schwehmdawgs won our game last night (and it was a nailbiter!) so we're going to the championship game on Sunday. WOOOOOO!!
To Be a Sports Writer, You Should Understand Sports
Filip Bondy: I guess he doesn't understand any sport.
"The Jets' special teams appeared clueless on a pivotal fake punt, for one thing, which is indisputably a coaching failure." The Jets had run the punt-block call instead of punt-cover the previous two Oakland punts, so Tom Cable took advantage of that (Jets ran punt-block on the fake too)*. Sure, you could say that Mangini or Westhoff should not have dialed up that play, but it was a good call by Cable too.
"Why, exactly, did the Jets get Favre if they weren't going to let him be Favre?" Maybe so that defenses have to respect the long ball and not play 8 men in the box? So the cornerbacks and safeties don't play 5 yards off the line of scrimmage? Good passing quarterbacks open up the running game as well.
"It is impossible to overstate the importance of this defeat to Oakland..." I think I can overstate it: "This loss will cause the Jets franchise to collapse." Not overstated? How about this: "The Jets loss is going to cause humanity to end."
If you're going to use hyperbole, please make it interesting at least.
"Not a word was spoken in anger or with a sense of urgency, even as the calendar and the standings scream for something different." OK, so you want Mangini to get desperate and crazy and angry? Deviate from his game plan? Can you say "cool under pressure"? I happen to love when the coach is calm, cool, and collected in the face of adversity.
My favorite part of this column is the non-mention of the miscommunication on Favre's 2nd interception. Cotchery stopped for a 8-yard-or-so hook, Favre threw it deep under pressure. I guess Favre can do no wrong these days.
* Watch the return team linemen sometime on a punt. 80% of the time, you'll see only 1, maybe 2 guys trying hard to block the punt. The other guys are covering the punting team's linemen. That's a punt-cover.
"The Jets' special teams appeared clueless on a pivotal fake punt, for one thing, which is indisputably a coaching failure." The Jets had run the punt-block call instead of punt-cover the previous two Oakland punts, so Tom Cable took advantage of that (Jets ran punt-block on the fake too)*. Sure, you could say that Mangini or Westhoff should not have dialed up that play, but it was a good call by Cable too.
"Why, exactly, did the Jets get Favre if they weren't going to let him be Favre?" Maybe so that defenses have to respect the long ball and not play 8 men in the box? So the cornerbacks and safeties don't play 5 yards off the line of scrimmage? Good passing quarterbacks open up the running game as well.
"It is impossible to overstate the importance of this defeat to Oakland..." I think I can overstate it: "This loss will cause the Jets franchise to collapse." Not overstated? How about this: "The Jets loss is going to cause humanity to end."
If you're going to use hyperbole, please make it interesting at least.
"Not a word was spoken in anger or with a sense of urgency, even as the calendar and the standings scream for something different." OK, so you want Mangini to get desperate and crazy and angry? Deviate from his game plan? Can you say "cool under pressure"? I happen to love when the coach is calm, cool, and collected in the face of adversity.
My favorite part of this column is the non-mention of the miscommunication on Favre's 2nd interception. Cotchery stopped for a 8-yard-or-so hook, Favre threw it deep under pressure. I guess Favre can do no wrong these days.
* Watch the return team linemen sometime on a punt. 80% of the time, you'll see only 1, maybe 2 guys trying hard to block the punt. The other guys are covering the punting team's linemen. That's a punt-cover.
Monday, October 13, 2008
I Just Can't Do It
With the Yankees not making the playoffs, I decided I'd turn over a new leaf. While I can't root for the Red Sox, I decided to be happy for them if they won. Hell, I know enough Red Sox fans to make it worth it to me socially.
Yeah, that lasted all of two games in the ALDS. Come on Rays, kick the crap out of the Red Sox!
Yeah, that lasted all of two games in the ALDS. Come on Rays, kick the crap out of the Red Sox!
Monday, August 18, 2008
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Walrus Mark, uh, Zero
The Romans never had a symbol for zero because they were that awesome.
I got some good work done on Walrus tonight (ok yeah, I had Baseball Mogul open in the background... and Comedy Central on the TV). Mostly a lot of groundwork for getting the One True List into the app. I now know how to load data from Excel files. I'm going to hardcode everything for Rotoworld for now (following the "hardcode first, hardcode second, generalize third" rule), but it should be easy to import any set. Hot.
A few more features I'd like to add:
- Must-draft options: Add the ability for a user to set a draft round for a player that if the player drops to that round the user "must" draft him. The system would highlight the player somehow.
- Notes: Both a text note and possibly a "+/-/=" rating (for gut feelings). I could have players with notes brought to the forefront (maybe use tooltips?).
- Fantasy replacement level by postion: Set the replacement level for each position (that is, the point after which you either don't draft a player or pick only sleepers).
Fun times!
Friday, March 7, 2008
Fantasy Baseball Draft App - Walrus!
I've been playing fantasy baseball for a few years, and as I've said before, the draft is my weakest link. I've tried giving myself a cheat sheet with a clear one-value system for evaluating players. I've also tried providing myself with tons of information. Yet I always fall too far to one side of the information-overload/lack of info problem.
Enter Fantasy Baseball Draft App, codenamed Walrus (I just made up that code name because I didn't want to call it "Fantasy Baseball Draft App" or "FBDA"). I've started writing a windows application (in C#.NET w/ VS 2005) to help me with my draft. Basically I want a way to display to me "The One True List" (whatever ranking list you have) but with all/any set of analysis that I want as needed. For example, I could provide information about position scarcity compared to all teams' rosters (let's say there are only four tier three shortstops left, but only three teams don't have a SS already; that's valuable information). Or I could show fantasy-team-average stats compared to what I (or my opponents) have already drafted (and how a given player would impact them). These are just a few of the things I want to do.
Here's a basic feature list:
- Import projections/rankings from Excel files. This is tricky; first of all, importing from Excel is never straightforward. Secondly, what formats do I support? ESPN, Rotoworld, Rotowire, Baseball Prospectus? Likely I'll start with one format and go from there.
- Format projections to match league settings. Depends on how I set league settings...
- Set league settings. Yeah, I know.
- Set stat goals. Obvious and simple.
- Display "The One True List" with sorting and filter options. Easy.
- Display my roster and other rosters. Pretty simple.
- Allow a player to be drafted to my team or another team with a button click. This part requires some design decisions; do I have 1 or 2 buttons? How do I correct mistakes?
- Input total roster count and draft order. Simple.
- Provide a variety of calculations: ADP, position scarcity, etc. Depends on what I actually do.
That's just off the top of my head. I'll see how far I get with "Walrus Mark I".
Monday, March 3, 2008
Just Jumping
We had our draft for our fantasy baseball work league this weekend. I wanted to try out a particular draft strategy of simply drafting the highest value player on the board. I did this for about 6 rounds before I had to abandon it, as my rankings told me to draft about 6 closers AFTER I'd already drafted J.J. Putz and Jonathan Papelbon. So I struggled for a few rounds until Jon gave me an idea... he was drafting only fat baseball players and suggested I get a gimmick.
So I looked at my roster and saw 11 players, four whose first names started with J. The next guy I was planning to draft was Jim Thome. So I decided to draft only players whose first name started with J. So I proceded to draft Jim Thome, James Loney, Joakim Soria, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jeff Francis, Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Giambi, Jeremy Bonderman, Jack Cust, Joey Votto, Jason Bartlett, Jon Lester, John Buck, and Jay Bruce. Combine that with Jimmy Rollins, J.J. Putz, Jonathan Papelbon, and Justin Verlander, I had 18 out of 25 roster spots filled with Js.
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